The H-1B visa landscape is undergoing its most significant shift in years. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has finalized a rule that replaces the purely random lottery with a weighted selection process based on wage levels.If you are a tech professional or an employer planning for the upcoming seasons, here is everything you need to know about the new “thumb-on-the-scale” system.
- H1B Lottery Wage Based Selection
- The Big Shift: From Random to Weighted
- Why is DHS Changing the Lottery?
- Key Dates and Implementation
- How the U.S. Master’s Cap is Affected
- Strategic Planning for FY 2027 (March 2026)
- For F-1 OPT Students:
- For Employers:
- How the Weighted Selection Algorithm Actually Works
- 1. The “Lowest Offered Wage” Rule
- 2. Mandatory Registration Disclosures
- What This Means for Applicants and Employers
- 1. Experienced Professionals (Level III & IV)
- 2. Entry-Level Workers (Level I)
- 3. New Requirements at Registration
- Comparison Table: Old vs. New Selection
H1B Lottery Wage Based Selection
- The Big Shift: From Random to Weighted
- Why is DHS Changing the Lottery?
- Key Dates and Implementation
- How the U.S. Master’s Cap is Affected
- Strategic Planning for FY 2027 (March 2026)
- How the Weighted Selection Algorithm Actually Works
- What This Means for Applicants and Employers
- Comparison Table: Old vs. New Selection
The Big Shift: From Random to Weighted
Starting with the FY 2027 registration season (typically beginning in March 2026), your chances of being selected in the H-1B lottery will be directly tied to your proffered wage level.
Instead of every unique beneficiary having an equal ~30% chance, the new system weights entries based on the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) wage level:
| Wage Level | Weight (Pool Entries) | Estimated Selection Probability |
| Level IV (Highest) | 4 times | ~61.16% |
| Level III | 3 times | ~45.87% |
| Level II | 2 times | ~30.58% |
| Level I (Entry) | 1 time | ~15.29% |
Why is DHS Changing the Lottery?
The primary goal of this rule is to prioritize higher-skilled and higher-paid workers, which DHS believes better aligns with the original intent of the H-1B program. By favoring higher wage levels, the government aims to:
- Protect U.S. Wages: Disincentivize the use of H-1B visas for lower-paid, entry-level positions that could potentially suppress local wages.
- Reward Merit: Increase the probability of selection for the “best and brightest” who command top-tier salaries in their fields.
- Reduce Abuse: Stop the exploitation of the random lottery by entities primarily seeking low-cost foreign labor.
Key Dates and Implementation
- Effective Date: The rule is scheduled for publication on December 29, 2025.
- First Impacted Season: The weighted system will be in place for the FY 2027 cap registration season.
- Current Season (FY 2026): Because the rule is effective in 2026, the current FY 2026 filings are generally expected to proceed under existing rules unless otherwise specified.
How the U.S. Master’s Cap is Affected
The good news for graduates of U.S. universities is that the Advanced Degree Exemption (Master’s Cap) remains intact. However, the weighted system applies to both the regular 65,000 cap and the 20,000 master’s cap.
The “Double Advantage” for Master’s Holders:
- Higher Probability: Advanced degree holders typically command higher wages (Level II or III), giving them 2x or 3x entries.
- Two Bites at the Apple: If not selected in the regular pool, they are entered into the 20,000-slot master’s pool, where the weighted odds apply again.
Strategic Planning for FY 2027 (March 2026)
For F-1 OPT Students:
- Upskill Early: Focus on specialized certifications (AI, Cybersecurity, Cloud Architecture) that justify a Level II or III wage even at the start of your career.
- Negotiate Levels, Not Just Dollars: Sometimes a small salary bump can move you from the 33rd percentile (Level I) to the 34th percentile (Level II), doubling your chances of selection.
For Employers:
- Audit Job Descriptions: Ensure job duties accurately reflect the required skill level. USCIS will scrutinize petitions where a Level IV wage was claimed at registration but the duties described are entry-level.
- Budgeting: With the potential for wage inflation and higher filing fees, companies should begin their H-1B budgeting in Q3 2025 to be ready for the March 2026 window.
How the Weighted Selection Algorithm Actually Works
The new rule introduces a “lowest common denominator” approach to prevent applicants from gaming the system through multiple job offers.
1. The “Lowest Offered Wage” Rule
If multiple employers submit registrations for the same individual, your total entries are determined by the lowest wage level offered among all your registrations.
Example: If Employer A offers a Level IV wage (4 entries) but Employer B offers a Level I wage (1 entry), USCIS will only enter you into the pool one time. This effectively discourages candidates from seeking “backup” entry-level offers to increase their selection odds.
2. Mandatory Registration Disclosures
Under the old system, employers only finalized salary and job levels after selection. Now, the following must be locked in at the registration phase (March 2026):
- SOC Code: The specific occupational classification.
- Wage Level: (I, II, III, or IV) based on the latest OEWS data.
- Worksite Location: Since prevailing wages vary by city, the location must be accurate to determine the correct level.
What This Means for Applicants and Employers
1. Experienced Professionals (Level III & IV)
Your odds of selection have effectively doubled compared to the random system. If your proffered wage equals or exceeds the Level IV prevailing wage for your SOC code and location, your chance of selection jumps from ~29% to over 61%.
2. Entry-Level Workers (Level I)
While not excluded, the odds for Level I applicants will drop significantly to roughly 15.29%. Employers may now be incentivized to offer higher wages to entry-level workers just to improve their lottery odds.
3. New Requirements at Registration
Under the new rule, registrants must provide the following information during the initial registration period:
- The highest OEWS wage level the proffered wage will equal or exceed.
- The relevant Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code.
- The specific area of intended employment.
Comparison Table: Old vs. New Selection
| Feature | Old Random System | New Weighted System (FY 2027) |
| Selection Basis | Pure Luck | Wage Level + Skill |
| Level I Odds | ~25-30% | ~15% |
| Level IV Odds | ~25-30% | ~61% |
| Multiple Offers | Multiple entries allowed | Weighted by lowest offered wage |
| Registration Data | Basic info only | SOC Code, Location, & Wage Level required |
This change shifts the H-1B lottery from a “game of luck” to a “game of value.” For tech professionals in high-demand, high-paying roles, this is a massive win. For entry-level graduates and startups on tight budgets, the path to an H-1B has become noticeably steeper.